The Probability Engine

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AMOC sculpture, lit blue and purple and pink, in front of a blue sky and waterfront in Toronto at Nuit Blanche
The Probability Engine: Atlantic Overturning, at Nuit Blanche in Toronto, by micha cárdenas, Star Hagen-Esquerra, Marcelo Diaz Viana Neto, Ryan Li Dahlstrom and Ian Costello, 2024
Artwork by By micha cárdenas, Ian Costello, Ryan Li Dahlstrom, Tamara Duplantis, Star Hagen-Esquerra, Marcelo Diaz Viana Neto and Madison Mccartha
Funded by the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience, the UCSC Arts Division, Nuit Blanche and the Anonymous Was A Woman Award

We Will Be The Tipping Point,  poem by micha cárdenas

a curve made of swirling currents shifting from hot pink to bright purple on a lighter pink and blue toned holographic background. In front of the curve is a semi-transparent text box with black, grey and pink waves with the poem "We are the tipping point" by micha cardenas. Poem text in description
We will be the tipping point
From a world where
only a few matter
only a few are cared for
From a world where children in Gaza are bombed in schools and hospitals
Ocean will show us the way
A global current
made up of local eddies, whirling, dancing, self organizing,
is being pushed down by melting arctic ice,
is overturning
and we will, we must
overturn
as well
to a world
where those who are in the most need
will receive the most care
because we take care of us
and in solidarity, we care for others
To a world where every child has a quiet, soft place to
grow and learn and love
We will be the tipping point
We must
overturn

Critical Realities Studio at Nuit Blanche

The Probability Engine series of artworks about climate tipping points was displayed at Nuit Blanche Toronto! Our new AMOC sculpture explores the connections between climate tipping points, and how we can care for each other and the environment.

By micha cárdenas, Ian Costello, Ryan Li Dahlstrom, Tamara Duplantis, Star Hagen-Esquerra, Marcelo Diaz Viana Neto and Madison Mccartha
The Probability Engine: Permafrost and the Last Piece of Antarctic Ice (2024) was featured at Art Souterrain, an art festival in Montreal March 16 – April 7 which addresses the urgent issue of the environment and climate change and will lead the public to think about the future and rethink their relationship with the environment.


Scan the tipping point icons this page with the Probability Engine app to see possible climate futures.

Permafrost collapse, a global tipping point

The Probability Engine: Permafrost and the Last Piece of Antarctic Ice (2024) draws inspiration from studies predicting that a 1.5°C increase in global warming could trigger several global tipping points. This series of artworks envisions a machine allowing audiences to explore potential futures of climate disasters and justice. Three sculptures, 3D printed from recycled materials, form the core of this work. Additionally, an augmented reality app depicts the effects of permafrost loss and explores potential solutions. Among the envisioned futures is the melting of boreal permafrost, covering much of Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and parts of northern Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. Scientists fear abrupt permafrost thawing, releasing huge amounts of currently frozen methane into the atmosphere. The project highlights tipping points and their consequences, such as Antarctic ice melting leading to sea-level rise. Collaborating with scientific publications, micha cárdenas and her team have created an immersive installation, making the realities of frozen landscapes and our interdependence tangible, particularly for those of us living in southern regions. The poems in the app make connections between genocide in Gaza, climate change and decolonization.

The Probability Engine is supported by the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience, the Anonymous Was a Woman award and the UCSC Arts Division.

Arctic winter sea ice collapse, a global tipping point

Privacy Policy

The Probability Engine iOS app does not collect or store any user data. We do not collect or save any of your personal data through the Probability Engine iOS app. You will be asked to allow location data, but that is only used by the app for walking navigation in augmented reality. You will be asked for camera access, only to display the virtual objects in your screen in your local environment. No data is sent back to our servers. No data is saved locally on your device or on our servers.